The paper develops a method for detecting US recessions in real time. The method combines recession classifiers selected from the anticipation-precision frontier. The probability that the United States is in recession in February 2025 is 71%.
This paper explains why a wave of in-migration reduces the employment rate of local workers, and why this reduction is larger in bad times. Yet, when the labor market is inefficiently tight, in-migration improves local welfare because it aids firms in recruiting.
This note combines unemployment and job vacancy data to build a new Sahm-type recession rule. The rule shows that the US economy may have entered a recession as early as March 2024. In August 2024, the probability that the US economy is in a recession is 48%.
This undergraduate course introduces macroeconomic concepts—such as GDP and inflation—and covers the IS-LM model of business cycles, matching model of unemployment, Phillips curve, Malthusian model of growth, and Solowian model of growth.