recession threshold

Early and Accurate Recession Detection Using Classifiers on the Anticipation-Precision Frontier

The paper develops a method for detecting US recessions in real time. The method combines recession classifiers selected from the anticipation-precision frontier. The probability that the United States is in recession in February 2025 is 71%.

Has the Recession Started?

This note combines unemployment and job vacancy data to build a new Sahm-type recession rule. The rule shows that the US economy may have entered a recession as early as March 2024. In August 2024, the probability that the US economy is in a recession is 48%.