recession probability

Recession Detection Using Classifiers on the Anticipation-Precision Frontier

This paper develops an algorithm that detects US recessions early and accurately by optimally filtering and combining unemployment and vacancy data. As of September 2025, the algorithm estimates a 64% probability that the US economy has entered a recession.

Has the Recession Started?

This paper develops the Michez rule, a fast and robust method to detect US recessions using data on unemployment and job vacancies. In December 2024, the rule gives a recession probability of 27%; this recession risk was first detected in March 2024.