This paper develops the Michez rule, a fast and robust method to detect US recessions using data on unemployment and job vacancies. In December 2024, the rule gives a recession probability of 27%; this recession risk was first detected in March 2024.
The paper develops a new method for detecting US recessions in real time. The method combines recession classifiers selected from the anticipation-precision frontier. Backtesting confirms that the method detects recessions in a timely and accurate manner.
This dashboard provides real-time indicators of US labor market and business cycle conditions. It starts with three core labor market indicators: the unemployment rate, vacancy rate, and labor market tightness. These metrics jointly characterize the functioning of the labor market. From these, the dashboard calculates two metrics that quantify how far the labor market is from social efficiency: the full-employment rate of unemployment (FERU) and the unemployment gap. These two metrics are key determinants of optimal monetary policy and fiscal policy. ...