nowcasting

This paper develops a method for detecting US recessions in real time using unemployment and vacancy data. The method combines recession classifiers on the anticipation-precision frontier. Backtesting confirms that recessions are detected early and accurately.

This paper develops the Michez rule, a fast and robust method to detect US recessions using data on unemployment and job vacancies. In December 2024, the rule gives a recession probability of 27%; this recession risk was first detected in March 2024.