nowcasting

This paper develops the Michez rule, a fast and robust method to detect US recessions using data on unemployment and job vacancies. In December 2024, the rule gives a recession probability of 27%; this recession risk was first detected in March 2024.

The paper develops a new method for detecting US recessions in real time. The method combines recession classifiers selected from the anticipation-precision frontier. Backtesting confirms that the method detects recessions in a timely and accurate manner.