Michez rule

Early and Accurate Recession Detection Using Classifiers on the Anticipation-Precision Frontier

This paper detects US recessions in real time using unemployment and vacancy data. By selecting perfect recession classifiers on the high-precision segment of the anticipation-precision frontier, the algorithm detects recessions not only early but also precisely.

Has the Recession Started?

This paper develops the Michez rule, a fast and robust method to detect US recessions using data on unemployment and job vacancies. In December 2024, the rule gives a recession probability of 27%; this recession risk was first detected in March 2024.